Bitcoin rally only of short duration? Google search trends draw bearish outlook
For many Bitcoin enthusiasts, the flagship of the crypto currency has arrived on Wall Street with aplomb.
Buying a Bitcoin now costs around $14,500 – about twice as much as at the beginning of the year. This is also the highest level since January 2018, when the crypto currency was revised downwards from its record high of almost $20,000 the previous month.
Bitcoin is approaching a value of almost $14,500 in its most recent rally on Thursday morning. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Many analysts agree that Bitcoin’s renewed price rally has to do with the growing demand from investors for safe investments. Some, including Bloomberg, even believe that the crypto-currency will rise again to $20,000 by the end of this year – due to exploding federal deficits caused by trillions of dollars in government spending and inflation fears.
Bitcoin cheerleaders have long projected the coin as the ultimate hedging tool against fiat money, as it has a definitive supply cap of 21 million tokens. As individual mainstream companies have decided to replace part of their cash reserves with Bitcoin, the thesis has gained enormous traction through social media.
Unfortunately, the same enthusiasm is not evident in Google Trends.
Lack of interest in searches
The latest data from the world’s largest online search engine shows a lack of Bitcoin interest among everyday Internet users. On a scale of zero to 100 over a five-year period, Bitcoin scores 9 points. If the period is changed to 12 months, the value rises to 63.
In contrast, the trend value of Bitcoin was 100 in December 2017, when the crypto-currency was approaching $20,000. Most of the sentiment mentioned above was related to the fact that BTC was the first booming coin.
Start-ups raised funds in BTC by posing as the next block-chain unicorns and getting ordinary citizens to look for ways to buy Bitcoin.
The search for the keyword “Bitcoin” remains low despite the enormous interest at the macro level. Source: Google Trends
The boom ended with a major collapse, as most of these projects failed or turned out to be fraudulent. As a result, Bitcoin fell 84 per cent from its $20,000 high.
The same happened with its Google trend score, which plummeted from “100” in December 2017 to “5” in November 2018.
In contrast, Bitcoin’s main hedging rival, gold, recorded a steady trend. Its values fluctuated between “82” and “51″” – mostly over a period of five years. Over the last 12 months they have remained stable above ’71’.
Interestingly, in the week from 10 to 16 May 2020, Bitcoin reached a perfect ‘100’ within a 12-month time frame. This step coincided with the third “halving” of the crypto currency – an event that periodically reduces their daily supply by half, further exacerbating their scarcity against the fiat currencies.
At least some good news for Bitcoin
Hans Hauge, head of quantitative strategy at Ikigai Asset Management, considers the absence of “Bitcoin” interest against the rising price to be good news. He comments that the lower values for the keyword “Bitcoin” show that the crypto currency has matured.
“This is not the peak of a bubble-induced mania, it is orderly and calm,” Hauge said when comparing the 2017 trend with the current one. And:
“The next peak in Google Trends will make the last one look like nothing.”